Black Friday e-commerce sales expected to approach $ 9 billion as the power of big shopping days dwindles

Adobe Analytics forecasts e-commerce sales for Black Friday to be between $ 8.8 billion and $ 9.6 billion, although the group says the attraction of big shopping days is starting to wane.

Buyers spent $ 5.1 billion on Thanksgiving Day, the low end of the expected range of $ 5.1 billion to $ 5.4 billion. Yet shoppers spent an average of $ 3.5 million per minute.

“In the midst of a holiday shopping season characterized by inflation, lower discounts and widespread product shortages, it’s worth noting that online spending in the United States has already reached more than $ 75 billion. so far in November, “said Taylor Schreiner, director of Adobe Digital Insights.

“However, even big shopping days like Thanksgiving are starting to see their growth slow down from previous years as consumers choose to open their wallets earlier and buy on their terms outside of the day’s trading days. historically promoted hit sale. “

See: The Absolute Best Black Friday Deals

Retailers encouraged shoppers to tackle their wishlists earlier this year, with advanced Black Friday deals and other discounts launching earlier this month.

However, with the retail landscape in turmoil, shoppers may find that typical big discounts are rare. Adobe ADBE,
-7.14%
says toys, clothing and computers were among the items with the biggest discounts during Black Friday.

“During our malls and non-mall audits, we observed the lowest level of clearance products in five or more years, which we believe is being fueled by consumer demand, the constraints of supply, a new cycle of clothing and outings and a strong momentum for both giving and receiving, ”Cowen analysts wrote in a Black Friday note.

Cowen predicts holiday sales increases of up to 13% year over year due to lower promotional levels.

“We believe buying earlier is particularly cautious for retailers given current inventory and supply chain headwinds that could lead to delivery delays if consumers wait until the last minute,” the report said. note.

Moreover, precocity is also a testament to pent-up demand, in our opinion, as holiday social gatherings will likely be more standardized on improving COVID-19 restrictions this year. “

As well: Faced with the biggest rise in inflation in 30 years, shoppers expect to spend significantly more this holiday season

Edge by Ascential, a data and service provider for consumer businesses and retailers, says it has seen an increase in searches for “ugly Christmas sweaters” as the holiday season returns this year.

Even with the past evolution of holiday shopping and supply chain issues, shoppers are eager to spend.

“Consumers clearly understood the supply chain issues and started their holiday shopping early,” said Rob Garf, vice president of retail at Salesforce CRM,
-8.28%,
in a report.

“Despite higher prices and fewer discounts, people are excited to splurge on experiential categories like the outdoors, entertainment and luxury as we kick off Cyber ​​Week. Buyers pick up hot holiday gifts before they run out.

Shopify Inc. BOUTIQUE,
-2.61%
took a closer look at its more than 1.7 million independent, direct-to-consumer businesses and found that the average US shopping cart on Thanksgiving Day totaled $ 105.93, up from $ 90.40 last year .

Adobe says retailers are focusing on in-stock items as out-of-stocks skyrocket. As the Thanksgiving holiday approached, Adobe found that out-of-stock messages were up 227% for the month of November. The number of out-of-stock messages fell 8% on Thanksgiving, from the previous Thursday, although they are still up 167% from January 2020.

Don’t miss: It’s the # 1 thing to buy on Black Friday

Adobe expects online sales for the holiday season to reach $ 207 billion, up 10% year-over-year and a new record high.

The National Retail Federation forecasts total sales of $ 843.4 billion and $ 859 billion for the holiday season, a record as well.

Amplify IBUY online retail ETF,
-4.10%
has fallen 10.5% for the year to date. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT,
-3.37%
gained 51%. And the benchmark S&P 500 SPX,
-1.94%
grew by 22.3% over the period.